2014: The influence of tropical cyclone size on its intensification

This study investigates tropical cyclones of the past two decades (1990–2010) and the connection, if any, between their size and their ability to subsequently undergo rapid intensification (RI). Three different pa-rameters are chosen to define the size of a tropical cyclone: radius of maximum wind (RMW), the average 34-knot (kt; 1 kt5 0.51m s21) radius (AR34), and the radius of the outermost closed isobar (ROCI). The data for this study, coming from the NorthAtlantic hurricane database second generation (HURDAT2), as well as the extended best-track dataset, are organized into 24-h intervals of either RI or slow intensification/constant intensity periods (non-RI periods). Each interval includes the intensity (maximum sustained surface wind speed), RMW, AR34, and ROCI at the beginning of the period and the change of intensity during the sub-sequent 24-h period. Results indicate that the ability to undergo RI shows significant sensitivity to initial size. Comparisons betweenRI and non-RI cyclones confirm that tropical cyclones that undergo RI are more likely to be smaller initially than those that do not. Analyses show that the RMW and AR34 have the strongest negative correlationwith the change of intensity. Scatterplots imply there is a generalmaximum size threshold for RMWandAR34, above whichRI is extremely rare. In contrast, the overall size of the tropical cyclones, as measured by ROCI, appears to have little to no relationship with subsequent intensification. The results of this work suggest that intensity forecasts andRI predictions in particular may be aided by the use of the initial size as measured by RMW and AR34. 1