1 Is climate change driving urbanization in Africa?

This paper documents a substantial impact of climate variation on urbanization in sub-Saharan Africa. In a panel of over 350 subnational regions, we find that drier conditions increase urbanization in places most likely to have an urban industrial base. Total city income in such places also increases. When receiving cities have an export sector that is not wholly dependent upon local agriculture, migration to cities provides an “escape ” from negative agricultural moisture shocks. However, in most places (75 % of our sample) without an industrial base, there is no escape into alternative export-based employment. Drying causes reduced urban and rural incomes, with little overall impact on the urban population share. Finally, the paper shows that climate variation also induces employment changes within the rural sector itself. Drier conditions induce a shift out of farm activities, especially for women, into non-farm activities, and especially out of the measured work force. Overall, these findings imply a strong link between climate and urbanization in Africa