7. Tentative Title: DEVELOPING WATER MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS FOR KHULNA DISTRICT DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

8. Background and present state of the problem: Bangladesh has been identified as one amongst 27 countries that are the most vulnerable to the impacts of global warming induced accelerated sea level rise (Islam, 2004). According to IPCC in their recently published Fourth Assessment report, significant changes have been observed in climate trends, variability and extreme events. The annual mean rainfall exhibits increasing trends in Bangladesh and decadal rain anomalies are above long term averages since 1960s. Water shortages has been attributed to rapid urbanization and industrialization, population growth and inefficient water use, which are aggravated by changing climate and its adverse impacts on demand, supply and water quality. Moreover, Salt water from the Bay of Bengal is reported to have penetrated 100 km or more inland along tributary channels during the dry season (DOE, 2007). Climate change induced sea level rise may aggravate the potential risks to coastal zones. IWM (2007) reported that about 13 % more area i.e. 469,000 ha will be inundated in monsoon due to 62 cm sea level rise for high emission scenario A2 in addition to the inundated area in base condition. Due to increased rainfall in addition to 62 cm sea level rise, the inundated area will be increased and about 16 % i.e. 551,500 ha more area will be inundated in the year 2080. On the contrary, in the dry season due to 62cm sea level rise about 364,200 ha (10%) more area will be inundated for A