Probabilistic Forecasting of Solar Power: An Ensemble Learning Approach

Abstract. Probabilistic forecasts account for the uncertainty in the pre-diction helping the decision makers take optimal decisions. With the emergence of renewable technologies and the uncertainties involved with the power generated through them, probabilistic forecasts can come to the rescue. Wind power is a mature technology and is in place for decades now, various probabilistic forecasting techniques are used here. On the other hand solar power is an emerging technology and as the technology matures there will be a need for forecasting the power generated days ahead. In this study, we utilize some of the probabilistic forecasting tech-niques in the field of solar power forecasting. An ensemble approach is used with different machine learning algorithms and different initial set-tings assuming normal distribution for the forecasts. It is observed that having multiple models with different initial settings gives exceedingly better results when compared to individual models. Getting accurate forecasts will be of great help where the large scale solar farms are inte-grated into the power grid