Limitation of the Artificial Neural Networks Methodology for Predicting the Vertical Swelling Percentage of Expansive Clays

Abstract: The general swelling model has recently been updated in Israel by applying the Excel-solver command (ESC) analysis to new local test results from 897 undisturbed specimens. In this analysis, the goodness-of-fit statistics obtained classify the category of their as-sociated regression only as fair. Thus, it seems necessary to explore the possibility of enhancing the outputs of this regression analysis by applying the artificial neural networks (ANN) methodology to the same 897 undisturbed specimens. However, it is shown that the use of the ANN outputs should be accompanied by an additional check to ensure that they follow the expected physical swelling behavior, as char-acterized by the index properties of the soil. The ANN methodology applied in this paper is similar to previous studies in geotechnical engineering. Different models were tested using the same database (i.e., the same 897 undisturbed specimens). The statistical fit of the ANN models were clearly found to be superior to the ESC models. However, in the sense of the required physical behavior, as characterized by the index properties of the soil, the ANN models did not predict swelling values as well as ESC models did, in particular values ranging near (or outside) the data set boundaries. Thus, the former ESC models still remain preferable. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)MT.1943-553