ENCYCLOPEDIA OF SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Climate Change Projections: Multi-Model Ensembles

Bayes ' Theorem- a law in probability theory which relates the probability of a hypothesis given observed evidence to its inverse, the probability of that evidence given the hypothesis. Climate Sensitivity- The global mean temperature response in Kelvin to an instantaneous doubling of carbon dioxide) CMIP-3- The Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project, a set of coordinated experiments using GCMs from the world’s major modeling centers Detection and Attribution- a process whereby spatial ‘fingerprints ’ associated with individual climate forcing factors are identified and used to relate forcing signals in a period of climate change. Empirical Model- A model which makes no attempt to justify its representations of the system with any physical basis. General Circulation Model- a three dimensional mathematical model for the atmosphere and possibly the ocean, land and cryosphere. Last Glacial Maximum- a period lasting several thousand years peakin