1 WHAT HAPPENED TO LONG TERM EMPLOYMENT? THE ROLE OF WORKER POWER AND ENVIRONMENTAL TURBULENCE IN EXPLAINING DECLINES IN WORKER TENURE

Recent declines in the average length of time that US workers spend with a given employer represent an important change in the nature of the employment relationship, yet one whose causes are poorly understood. I explore those causes using Current Population Survey data on the tenure of men aged 30-65. I argue that long term employment relationships primarily occur when workers pressure employers to close off employment from market competition, reducing the attractiveness of external mobility relative to internal opportunities, and increasing employment security. I then explore how two changes in organizations ’ environments might have affected workers ’ ability to secure such closed employment relationships: a decline in union strength, and increased turbulence from changes in technology and globalization. My results support the argument that declines in tenure reflect the reduced power of workers to secure closed employment relationships. Recent declines in tenure have been concentrated in large organizations, and much of those declines are explained by controlling for the changing levels of industry unionization. I find little evidence that foreign competition or technological change affected mobility. Th