Add to ORKGAbstract: A knowledge of the level of trend ination is key to many current policy decisions and several methods of estimating trend ination exist. This paper adds to the growing literature which uses survey-based long-run forecasts of ination to estimate trend ination. We develop a bivariate model of ination and long-run forecasts of ina-tion which allows for the estimation of the link between trend ination and the long-run forecast. Thus, our model allows for the possibilities that long-run forecasts taken from surveys can be equated with trend ination, that the two are completely unrelated, or anything in between. By including stochastic volatility and time-variation in coe ¢ cients, it extends existing methods in empirically important wa...
The dissertation consists of three chapters on econometric methods related to parameter instability,...
The average rate of change is a concept that has been misunderstood in the literature. This article ...
Forecasters often encounter situations in which the local pattern of a time series is not expected t...
A knowledge of the level of trend inflation is key to many current policy decisions and several meth...
Trend estimation deals with the characterization of the underlying, or long–run, evolution of a time...
We discuss some challenges presented by trending data in time series econometrics. To the empirical ...
This thesis suggests a general approach for estimating the trend of a univariate time series. It beg...
Long-run forecasts of economic variables play an important role in policy, planning, and portfolio d...
Using survey forecast data, this paper studies whether professional forecasters utilize long-run coi...
This study examines the relationship between specifications for long-run output patterns and specifi...
SUMMARY Many different approaches have been proposed to deal with the signal extraction problem in g...
Abstract: In this paper, we develop a bivariate unobserved compo-nents model for ination and unemplo...
A framework for modelling actual and expected output growth is described when direct measures of exp...
We develop an unobserved components approach to study surveys of forecasts containing multiple forec...
Even though the trend components of economic time series were among the first to be distinguished, e...
The dissertation consists of three chapters on econometric methods related to parameter instability,...
The average rate of change is a concept that has been misunderstood in the literature. This article ...
Forecasters often encounter situations in which the local pattern of a time series is not expected t...
A knowledge of the level of trend inflation is key to many current policy decisions and several meth...
Trend estimation deals with the characterization of the underlying, or long–run, evolution of a time...
We discuss some challenges presented by trending data in time series econometrics. To the empirical ...
This thesis suggests a general approach for estimating the trend of a univariate time series. It beg...
Long-run forecasts of economic variables play an important role in policy, planning, and portfolio d...
Using survey forecast data, this paper studies whether professional forecasters utilize long-run coi...
This study examines the relationship between specifications for long-run output patterns and specifi...
SUMMARY Many different approaches have been proposed to deal with the signal extraction problem in g...
Abstract: In this paper, we develop a bivariate unobserved compo-nents model for ination and unemplo...
A framework for modelling actual and expected output growth is described when direct measures of exp...
We develop an unobserved components approach to study surveys of forecasts containing multiple forec...
Even though the trend components of economic time series were among the first to be distinguished, e...
The dissertation consists of three chapters on econometric methods related to parameter instability,...
The average rate of change is a concept that has been misunderstood in the literature. This article ...
Forecasters often encounter situations in which the local pattern of a time series is not expected t...