Probabilistic power flow simulation allowing temporary current overloading

Abstract—This paper presents a probabilistic power flow model subject to connection temperature constraints. Renewable power generation is included and modelled stochastically in order to reflect its intermittent nature. In contrast to conventional models that enforce connection current constraints, short-term current overloading is allowed. Temperature constraints are weaker than current constraints, and hence the proposed model quantifies the overload risk more realistically. Using such a constraint is justified the more by the intermittent nature of the renewable power source. Allowing temporary current overloading necessitates the incor-poration of a time domain in our model. This substantially influences the choice of model for the renewable power source, as we explain. Wind power is modelled by use of an ARMA model, and appropriate accelerations of the power flow solution technique are chosen. Several IEEE test case examples illustrate the more realistic risk analysis. An example shows that a current constraint model may overestimate these risks, which may lead to unnecessary over-investments by grid operators in grid connections. Keywords- Probabilistic power flow, renewable generation, Monte Carlo, reliability analysis I