DISTANCE (km)

A theoretical ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) has been developed for Icelandic earthquakes. The model uses path and source parameters that are estimated from the acceleration data and/or available seismological information. Lack of data to develop an emprical GMPE was originally the main incentive for developing this model. The theoretical model has been found to provide a better fit to the available Icelandic strong motion data than GMPEs found in the literature and are based on data from other regions of the world. An advantage of the presented theoretical model compared to empirical models are physically intuitive model parameters which can be estimated from aivalable ground motion records. The same model that is used for obtaining PGA can also be used for simulating ground motion time series. Application to the Ölfus 29 May 2008 (Mw6.3) earthquake Originally developed for earthquakes smaller than Mw6 [1], the theoretical model was also found to provide an excellent fit to the Mw6.5 earthquakes in South Iceland in June 2000. Here below the results of applying the model to the 29 May 2008 earthquake in Ölfus, South Iceland (Mw6.3) is presented [2]. Table 1 shows estimated model parameters and Figure 3 shows how the model (green curve) fits PGA values obtained at different stations (black dots). The red curve represents a typical empirical GMPE found in the literature and is developed based on data from other regions (Campbell and Bozorgnia, 2007). Figure 2 (A) duration of the earthquake with respect to time. The red triangles represent source duration (S-wave windows), the solid blue circles represent the 95 % duration and the solid curve represents the duration model (B) quality factor Q with respect to distance. A BAA 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 5