Supplementary materials for this article are available at 10.1007/s13253-012-0097-7. Flexible Distributed Lag Models Using Random Functions With Application to Estimating Mortality Displacement From Heat-Related Deaths

Changes in the distribution of ambient temperature, due to climate change or oth-erwise, will likely have a negative effect on public health. Characterizing the relation-ship between temperature and mortality is a key aspect of the larger problem of un-derstanding the health effect of climate change. In this article, a flexible class of dis-tributed lag models are used to analyze the effects of heat on mortality in four majo