ORIGINAL ARTICLE Modeling temporal and spatial colony-site dynamics

Abstract We studied the determinants of colony site dynamics in Audouin’s gull, Larus audouinii, breeding in a small archipelago of the western Mediterranean. Data on island occupation were available for a series of 25 years, since first colonization of the archipelago in 1973. Group behavior was studied in relation to the components of dispersal: permanence or abandonment (extinction) on an island previously occupied and per-manence or occupation (colonization) of another island. Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMMs) were used to identify the relative contribution of each explanatory variable to the probability of colony abandonment. Gulls showed a low probability (3%) of abandoning one of the islands (Grossa I.), especially when the colony was increasing in numbers from time ti-1 to ti. However, the probability of abandoning Grossa increased up to 31% when the colony was declining. The probability of island abandonment was very high for all other islands (range 66–99%) when the colony was declining, but much lower (range 36–82%) when it was increasing. Hence, we suggest that island abandonment by Audouin’s gull is at least a two-step process. The first step (dispersal of a portion of the colony) probably takes place at random, as an evolutionary load typical of a species evolved in unstable habitats. The second step, a further loss of breeding pairs, seems to feedback on the first loss of members of the colony (public information), likely perceived as a loss of colony quality. Colonization of islands by gulls abandoning Grossa I. was marginally and negatively affected by the density of breeding yel-low-legged gulls, a predatory species. Results apply to conservation ecology since they highlight the need to protect not only occupied patches but also those empty at present