Submitted to Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering SIMPLIFIED ESTIMATION OF SEISMIC RISK FOR REINFORCED CONCRETE BUILDINGS WITH CONSIDERATION OF CORROSION OVER TIME

Abstract. Throughout the world, buildings are reaching the end of their design life and develop new pathologies that decrease their structural capacity. Usually the ageing process is neglected in seismic design or seismic risk assessment but may become important for older structures, especially, if they are intended to be in service even after they exceed their design life. Thus, a simplified methodology for seismic performance evaluation with consideration of capacity degradation over time is presented, based on an extension of the SAC/FEMA probabilistic framework for estimating mean annual frequencies of limit state exceedance. This is applied to an example of an older three-storey asymmetric reinforced concrete building, in which corrosion has just started to propagate. The seismic performance of the structure is assessed at several successive times and the instantaneous and overall seismic risk is estimated for the near collapse limit state. The structural capacity in terms of the maximum base shear and the maximum roof displacement is shown to decrease over time. Consequently, the time-averaged mean annual frequency of violating the near-collapse limit state increases for the corroded building by about 10 % in comparison to the typical case where corrosion is neglected. However, it can be magnified by almost 40 % if the near-collapse limit state is related to a brittle shear failure, since corrosion significantly affects transverse reinforcement, raising important questions on the seismic safety of the existing building stock