Business Process Simulation Survival Guide

Abstract Simulation provides a flexible approach to analyzing business processes. Through simulation experiments various “what if ” questions can be answered and redesign alternatives can be compared with respect to key performance indicators. This chapter introduces simulation as an analysis tool for business process manage-ment. After describing the characteristics of business simulation models, the phases of a simulation project, the generation of random variables, and the analysis of simu-lation results, we discuss 15 risks, i.e., potential pitfalls jeopardizing the correctness and value of business process simulation. For example, the behavior of resources is often modeled in a rather naı̈ve manner resulting in unreliable simulation models. Whereas traditional simulation approaches rely on hand-made models, we advocate the use of process mining techniques for creating more reliable simulation models based on real event data. Moreover, simulation can be turned into a powerful tool for operational decision making by using real-time process data.