Methodology to Define Delivery Accuracy Under Current Day ATC Operations

In order to enable arrival management concepts and solutions in a NextGen environment, ground-based sequencing and scheduling functions have been developed to support metering operations in the National Airspace System. These sequencing and scheduling algorithms and tools are designed to aid air traffic controllers to develop an overall arrival strategy. The ground systems being developed will support the management of aircraft to their Scheduled Times of Arrival (STAs) at flow-constrained meter points. This paper presents a methodology for determining the undelayed delivery accuracy for current day air traffic control operations. The new method supports the definition of metrics that will allow near-future ground automation tools to successfully achieve desired separation at meter points, enabling aircraft to meet their STAs while performing Performance-Based Navigation (PBN) procedures in the terminal area. The research develops metrics for estimating the undelayed delivery accuracy of arrival flights as they cross the arrival meter fix. The metric is based on measurement of delivery performance and analysis of Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) accuracy for the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) system. This method utilizes a wide set of data from the Operational TMA/TBFM Repository (OTTR) system, which processes raw data collected by the FAA from operational TBFM systems. A large data set was used which consisted of all the traffic across a two month period in 2013, the hottest and coldest months, arriving into four airports: George Bus