ORI GIN AL PA PER Ocean heat content for tropical cyclone intensity forecasting and its impact on storm surge

Abstract Accurate tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts are vital to storm surge prediction and risk management. However, current cyclone intensity forecast skill is deficient, especially for rapid, unexpected intensification events. These sudden intensifi-cation events could be catastrophic if they occur just prior to making landfall in heavily populated and storm surge-vulnerable regions of the world. New satellite altimetry observations have revealed that oceanic subsurface warm features such as eddies and currents could make a critical contribution to the sudden intensification of high-impact cyclones. These warm features are characterized by high ocean heat content or tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) and can effectively limit a cyclone’s self-induced negative feedback from ocean cooling to favor intensification. This manuscript presents recent advancements in the understanding of the ocean’s role in generating intense tropical cyclones, that can produce high storm surge events such as Hurricane Katrina (2005) and ‘killer ’ Cyclone Nargis (2008), which produced high storm surge events. Regional char-acteristics and on-going cyclone intensity forecast and storm-surge modeling efforts ar