Second Digit Implications of Voters ’ Strategies and Mobilizations in the United States during the 2000s∗

Alesina and Rosenthal’s theory of divided government predicts voters act strategically: the presidential candidate of one party gets extra votes and so do legislative candidates of the opposite party. Empirically assessing the strategic behavior of voters supports the theory in U.S. election data from the 1980s, but by 2004 the same methods contradict the theory. Anomalous patterns seen in precinct vote counts ’ second digits in 2006 and 2008 data seemingly trace to the particular patterns of Democrat-favoring mobilization that occurred in those years. Digit patterns for federal and state legislative offices in the 2010 midterm elections resemble the 2000s more than the 1980s. To be more precise, patterns in the 2010 midterm for U.S. House races resemble the patterns seen for U.S. House races in th