Horizon Future issues for development Issue 2

Non-conflict armed violence Rethinking models of conflict and conflict resolution Significant unrest that falls outside the scope of civil conflict or rebel insurgency is becoming more common. Such conflicts hamper development, along with other sources of tension, instability or unrest, and researchers are beginning to realise their importance. Predictive research not only illustrates how accepted and widelyevidenced drivers – such as inequality – affect conflict, but also how they are magnified in a world that is increasingly globalised. It directs us to rethink the scale and impact of what are currently considered ‘lowintensity’ patterns of conflict and the required policy responses. The changing nature of armed violence over the past several decades has blurred the distinction between armed conflict and crime 1. Well over half the 740,000 plus people who die every year as a result of violence die in non-conflict settings 2. Between 1978 and 2000, more people died from armed violence in Rio de Janeiro than in Colombia, which is experiencing civil conflict 3. The global cost of non-conflict armed violence (NCAV) is estimated at US$163 billion a year 4. Data on non-conflict armed violence, however, has been largely neglected in international policy until recently. While it shares many characteristics with large-scale armed conflict, the heavy costs associated with non-conflict violence demand a more nuanced understanding of its causes and the implications for policy. What is non-conflict armed violence? It is defined as small- or large-scale criminally- or politically-motivated armed violence 5 including criminal violence (homicide, assault), gang violence, self-directed violence (suicide), domestic violence and gender-based violence 6. Men aged 15 to 29 are the main perpetrators and the main victims of these types of violence. Gender roles are changing, however, but women are still disproportionately affected by domestic and gender-based violence. Drivers of non-conflict armed violence Some drivers are similar to the causes of large-scale conflict, including