Constructing multivariate analyses (of dangerous dyads

Bremer’s (1992) “Dangerous Dyads ” was seminal in part because it analyzed dyads over a prolonged period of time, and relied on multivariate models. Its two almost identical multivariate models produced strikingly different results. Bremer (1993) added one more variable to the same multivariate model, once again changing the results rather dramatically. Multivariate models of MIDs and wars since 1992 produce inconsistent results. Whether or not states allied to each other are more likely to become involved in conflict is not clear. Political stability has a potentially important impact on the relationship between democracy and peace, but appears as a control variable in virtually no recent analyses. Some studies show no significant relationship between democracy and peace. Wealth might confound the relationship between democracy and peace, but it appears as a control variable in few recently published analyses. Analyses of data provided by Gartzke and Li (2003) show allied states are more likely to become involved in conflict. However, if geographic proximity is controlled for, alliance ties are negatively related to MID onset. A positive, possibly spurious bivariate relationship between trade and MID involvement persists even with controls for contiguity and distance. Interdependence relates negatively to conflict only with a control for trade share. This result is obscured in the analyses reported by Gartzke and Li (2003), arguably because they include too many control variables.