Page 1 Realizing Newcomb’s Problem

Box A is transparent and contains $1,000. Box B is opaque and contains either a million dollars or nothing. If a demon predicts you will choose only Box B, then he will place the million dollars in it. If he predicts that you will choose both boxes, he will leave Box B empty. This demon is known to make correct predictions 95 percent of the time. He either places the million dollars in Box B or not and can no longer influence the outcome when you make your choice. The principle of subjective expected utility recommends taking only box B since there is almost certainty of winning a million dollars. However, the principle of dominance recommends taking both boxes since you will be $1,000 better off regardless of what the demon has done. (Nozick 1969