1 Does Deliberation Matter? A Study of Deliberative Democracy in São Tomé e Príncipe’s National Forum *

Advocates of a more deliberative form of democracy reject the claim that ‘talk is cheap’ and postulate that free and earnest deliberation about collective decisions can transform preferences so that they become less rooted in narrow self-interest and more based on a reflective and public-spirited perspective. The transformative power of deliberation has not been given sufficient empirical attention to establish whether that postulate is correct, or whether talk is indeed cheap. This study presents results from a survey on São Tomé e Príncipe’s National Forum, a grand exercise in deliberative democracy. A multiple regression analysis reveals that deliberation did indeed matter in this case, in ways that cannot be ascribed to mere information effects. Not only does genuine deliberation transform preferences; it transforms them in the direction hypothesised by the deliberative democracy literature. While the opinions of non-deliberators are closely linked to their individual situations, individual characteristics have no explanatory power for the attitudes and preferences of those who participated in deliberative sessions and felt they could freely express their opinion. * This study would not have been possible without the collaboration of a great number of great people. I am very grateful to President de Menezes, Reverend Marques, and the rest of the São Tomé e Príncipe National Forum Executive Committee for letting my colleagues and myself assist them in designing the National Forum process. Macartan Humphreys and Willam Masters have been great collaborators i