Short Title: THE INTERNATIONAL ARMS TRADE Long Title: POLITICAL ECONOMY MODELS OF THE INTERNATIONAL ARMS TRADE: A FRAMEWORK FOR POLICY ANALYSIS.

aim of the project was to conduct empirically informed theoretical research which analyses the causes and effects of the arms trade, explains the stylised facts and produces policy conclusions regarding the regulation of weapons sales. It began in September 1996 and finished in September 1999 and has produced almost 30 papers, 4 already published and another 16 accepted for publication. The origins of the project were in our 1994 Defence and Peace Economics Paper on models of the arms trade, which has become recognised as providing the standard for arms trade models, and our 1995 Economic Journal paper on control of the trade. The model was based on a small group of forward-looking, optimising suppliers of major weapons systems who take account of both the economic and security consequences of their sales. Demand is modelled in terms of pairs of hostile interacting recipients involved in an arms race. In the course of this project we have substantially developed this theory. In our Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control Paper we examine the stability and dynamics of the system and the role of price adjustment. In a forthcoming Oxford Economic Papers model we examine the interaction of the various ways that suppliers can cooperate: through export control, alliances and collaborative production. In a forthcoming Defenc