An Integrated Assessment Metamodel for Developing Adaptation Pathways for Sustainable Water Management in the Lower Rhine Delta

Abstract: Water management is increasingly challenged by pressures from popu-lation growth, sea level rise and potential climate change. Moreover, these devel-opments are highly uncertain and change over time. The challenge is to develop strategies that are either robust- insensitive to the future- or flexible enough to adapt to changing conditions. Adaptation is not only determined by what is known or anticipated at present, but also by what will be experienced and learned while the future unfolds, and by policy responses to social and water events. As a result, an adaptation pathway emerges. Exploring adaptation pathways into the future will provide indispensable support to decisionmaking in achieving sustainable water management. For a structured exploration of the various adaptation pathways, we are developing a computational model of the Rhine Delta in the Netherlands. With this model, we will simulate an evolvement of the system wherein pressures influ-ence the water system state, and impacts on flood risk and water services such as agriculture and nature, which may then trigger a policy response. The result of this dynamic simulation is an adaptation pathway. The model should run fast enoug