Tracking Networks and the Mexican Drug War⇤

Abstract: Drug trade-related violence has escalated dramatically in Mexico since 2007, and recent years have also witnessed large-scale e↵orts to combat tracking, spearheaded by Mexico’s conservative PAN party. This study examines the direct and spillover e↵ects of Mexican policy towards the drug trade. Regression discontinuity estimates show that drug-related violence increases substantially after close elections of PAN mayors. Empirical evidence suggests that the violence reflects rival trackers ’ attempts to usurp territories after crackdowns have weakened incumbent criminals. Moreover, the study uses a network model of tracking routes to show that PAN victories divert drug trac, increasing violence along alternative drug routes