PENICK ET AL. 685 Do Premorbid Predictors of Alcohol Dependence Also Predict the Failure to Recover From Alcoholism?*

ABSTRACT. Objective: In a search for viable endophenotypes of alco-holism, this longitudinal study attempted to identify premorbid predic-tors of alcohol dependence that also predicted the course of alcoholism. Method: The 202 male subjects who completed a 40-year follow-up were originally selected from a Danish birth cohort (N = 9,182). Two thirds of the subjects were high-risk biological sons of treated alcoholics. A large number of measures (361) were obtained at different periods be-fore any subject had developed an alcohol-use disorder. At age 40, a psy-chiatrist provided mutually exclusive lifetime diagnoses of alcohol abuse or alcohol dependence that were characterized as currently active or currently in remission according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Third Edition, Revised, course specifi ers. Results: The majority of subjects with a diagnosis of alcohol abuse were in remission at age 40 compared with those with a diagnosis of alcohol dependence (88 % vs. 58%). Treatment did not predict remission. Fourteen of the 1