Systems Dynamics Approach to Reducing Carbon Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation at Provincial Level

Abstract: Forest and land use change contribute 18 % of greenhouse gas emissions, which cause global warming. The Conference of Parties (COP) 16 in Mexico increased political commitment to reduce emissions from deforestation and degradation and to enhance carbon stock (REDD+). We believe this support will continue at COP 18 in Doha, Qatar. However, various actors including local communities may or may not support REDD+ depending on, among others, their perceived impacts. To explore this situation, we have developed a systems dynamics model This model comprises sectors of landscape, population, local livelihoods, environmental services and government incomes. The model simulates landscape and carbon dynamics and their impacts. We compare “business as usual ” with various REDD+ scenarios. The simulation results are examined by criteria of effectiveness in carbon emission reduction, cost efficiency, equity among involved stakeholders and co-benefit of other activities. This study took Jambi Province of Indonesia as a case study. We found REDD+ to be effective in reducing carbon emissions; forest concessions are the most efficient places for running REDD+ projects and mining the most inefficient