Hideyuki Ito

Disaster relief operations are complex and can benefit greatly from a high level of preparedness. One of the main sources of complexity in disaster operations is uncertainty. This paper presents an analysis of a disaster relief operation in Aichi Prefecture, Japan, in preparing for the periodic so-called Tokai-Tonankai Earthquake. In this study, we consider the possible degradation of the road network by including a stochastic element to represent the possibility of link failure dependent on earthquake intensity in each sub-region. We also integrate a road fixing strategy into the analysis in order to evaluate its impact on the disaster logistics operations. The analysis is performed using the current road network of Aichi Prefecture. The results suggest the best preparation of resources and identify vulnerable destinations that are most likely to be cutoff by the disaster. We also analyze and suggest a relocation of hubs that can reduce the total response time taking into account the possibility of links being broken. This analysis is important to help planners to evaluate their strategies, to identify vulnerable locations, and to be able to prepare in advance the best methods to deal with the uncertainty of road failure