LONG TERM CHANGES IN TRANSPORT DEMAND

Transport demand on both short and long term is often modelled in transport models, which are based on data for a single year. In this way it is not possi-ble to identify changes in behaviour over time, except maybe for changes re-lated to changes in population as dealt with in the Dutch national model. In Denmark the National Travel Survey has been conducted in 1975, 1981 and from 1992 and on. The data set forms a unique basis for creating a pseudo panel data set reflecting both time series changes and cross sectional effects. This paper shows the first results of analysing these data and estimating panel data models. The analyses focus on number of trips and kilometres per day both overall and by purpose. The results show that the number of trips per day has not changed significantly over the 90’es and 00’es. However, the kilometres have increased as a result of longer trips. Examining the trips by purpose shows significant differences in trends over the years