Simulating Counterinsurgency and Coalition Strategies

Abstract—We model insurgency (IN) and counterinsurgency (COIN) operations with a large-scale system of differential equations that is connected to a coalition network model. Our simulations analyze components of leadership, promotion, recruitment, financial resources, operational techniques, network communications, coalition cooperation, logistics, security, intelligence, infrastructure development, humanitarian aid, and psychological warfare, with the goal of informing today’s decision makers of the options available in counterinsurgency tactics, operations, and strategy. In order to be more effective, the US military must improve its counterinsurgency capabilities and flexibility to match the adaptability of insurgent networks and terror cells. Our simulation model combines elements of traditional differential equation force-on-force modeling with modern social science modeling of networks, psyop, and coalition cooperation to inform the tactics and strategies of counterinsurgency decision makers. We calibrated our model with baseline data intended to keep the balanced strength equilibrium. We show the model development and results of a four-stage counter-insurgency scenario. Keywords- counterinsurgency; force-on-force model; differential eqiation; network model I. THE COIN MODEL In modeling an insurgent or terrorist organization, we modify the differential equation model in [1] that tracks several groups within the terrorist organization: senio