Add to ORKGAbstract: Do laboratory subjects correctly perceive the dynamics of a mean-reverting time series? In our experiment, subjects re-ceive historical data and make forecasts at dif-ferent horizons. The time series process that we use features short-run momentum and long-run partial mean reversion. Half of the subjects see a version of this process in which the momentum and partial mean reversion un-fold over 10 periods (‘fast’), while the other subjects see a version with dynamics that un-fold over 50 periods (‘slow’). Typical subjects recognize most of the mean reversion of the fast process and none of the mean reversion of the slow process
In this paper, we introduce a novel model selection approach to time series forecasting. For linear ...
Traders often employ judgmental methods when making financial forecasts. To characterize judgmental ...
Conventional economics theories adopt the three fundamental assumptions that economic agents are ful...
Economic agents often have to make decisions in environments affected by regime switches but expecta...
In our daily lives timing of our actions plays an essential role when we navigate the complex everyd...
We investigate how individuals use measures of apparent predictability from price charts to predict ...
In our daily lives timing of our actions plays an essential role when we navigate the complex everyd...
When attempting to predict future events, people commonly rely on historical data. One psychological...
Experimental studies of expectation formation of subjects are predominantly limited to the predictio...
The paper claims forecasting is a process during which forecasts are regularly updates and revised. ...
When attempting to predict future events, people commonly rely on historical data. One psychological...
Judgmental forecasting of real time series is performed in complex information environments. The com...
Using data generated from laboratory experiments, we test and compare the empirical accuracy of two ...
When required to predict sequential events, such as random coin tosses or basketball free throws, pe...
We conduct a laboratory experiment in a fully-fledged macroeconomic model where participants receiv...
In this paper, we introduce a novel model selection approach to time series forecasting. For linear ...
Traders often employ judgmental methods when making financial forecasts. To characterize judgmental ...
Conventional economics theories adopt the three fundamental assumptions that economic agents are ful...
Economic agents often have to make decisions in environments affected by regime switches but expecta...
In our daily lives timing of our actions plays an essential role when we navigate the complex everyd...
We investigate how individuals use measures of apparent predictability from price charts to predict ...
In our daily lives timing of our actions plays an essential role when we navigate the complex everyd...
When attempting to predict future events, people commonly rely on historical data. One psychological...
Experimental studies of expectation formation of subjects are predominantly limited to the predictio...
The paper claims forecasting is a process during which forecasts are regularly updates and revised. ...
When attempting to predict future events, people commonly rely on historical data. One psychological...
Judgmental forecasting of real time series is performed in complex information environments. The com...
Using data generated from laboratory experiments, we test and compare the empirical accuracy of two ...
When required to predict sequential events, such as random coin tosses or basketball free throws, pe...
We conduct a laboratory experiment in a fully-fledged macroeconomic model where participants receiv...
In this paper, we introduce a novel model selection approach to time series forecasting. For linear ...
Traders often employ judgmental methods when making financial forecasts. To characterize judgmental ...
Conventional economics theories adopt the three fundamental assumptions that economic agents are ful...