DETERMINATION OF PREDICTIVE MODELS FOR TRAFFIC CONGESTION IN LAGOS METROPOLIS

Traffic congestion always have negative effects on lives and environment. To quantify these negative effects is complex and multivaried. For congestion to be mitigated or eliminated, gathering of information on traffic incidents such as state of the road, congestion spots, and volume of traffic on each road cannot be overemphasized. Outright elimination of traffic congestion may not be a realistic goal, but traffic management that is based on available traffic information that will reduce the intensity of congestion may be achievable. This work was directed at identifying causes of congestion on some selected routes in Lagos Metropolis. Questionnaires were administered. Results revealed that bad access road is the highest cause of traffic congestion, and that cars are the highest mode of transportation. For Recurrent Congestion, data on traffic volume were used to develop a generalized polynomial of n order. From the generalized model, a response (dependent) variable y for any route can be determined for any predictor (independent) variable x. Spatial queries of the various volume of traffic on these roads revealed more routes are congested between 7.00 – 8.00hrs in the morning peak period and between 16.00 – 17.00hrs and 18.00 – 19.00hrs in the evening peak period