Simulation Model of a Bus Line in Changing Traffic Conditions

Abstract—This paper presents the author's stochastic model of bus line operation, taking into account the variability of traffic conditions, as a result of disturbing factors. General structure of the model bases on graph and events theory. In this approach, bus line has been described by bus stops and sections between these stops, and the most essential traffic processes: running following sections, alighting and boarding passengers at bus stops, waiting for the possibility to departure. In the mathematical description of the simulation model, a dynamical system of matrix-vector equations is used. The fundamental element of presented model is the state vector of the system. It includes all important information about operation of each bus line: variables allowing to define location of each bus on a line in time and space, variables describing the occupancy of all buses and values of scheduled ride times which enable to evaluate punctuality. All parameters of the model have been determined with statistical and stochastic methods using, on the basis of extensive and identification own research including various types of sections (with or without separated bus lanes) and diversified location and types of bus stops. Presented simulation model can find wide application among others: to create feasibility studies for investments in public transport, evaluation of solutions streamlining bus traffic, planning bus routes and developing timetables. Keywords- urban transport; bus lane; simulation I