JOB MARKET PAPER

This paper investigates the relationship between a woman’s education and fertility by exploiting a 1985 policy change in Kenya that lengthened primary school by one year. An instrumental variables approach exploits exogenous variation in the extent of treatment across birth cohorts, which allows for an examination of the reform’s effect on outcomes such as the age at first intercourse, marriage, and birth, as well as total fertility. The reform led to an increase in education, a delay in marriage, and lower levels of fertility beginning at the age of 20. The effect becomes increasingly negative through age 25, casting doubt on whether the “incarceration” hypothesis explains the results. While other potential mechanisms can be ruled out, the findings suggest that a postponement of marriage and increased use of modern contraceptives may be contributing to the reduction in fertility. Furthermore, the evidence is consistent with women gaining bargaining power over their household fertility decision