Chapter 1 A THREADED EVENT-BASED SIMULATION APPROACH TOANALYZING THE INTELLI- GENCE ON WMD ATTACKS

Abstract In intelligence analysis, data can be incomplete, ambiguous, and of large volume. Also, the data may be unorganized, which needs a lot of rea-soning to analyze covert adversarial activities. The work can be very time-consuming, and the details can be overwhelming. To help analysts understand data of use to predict future events and possible scenarios, we have developed a simulator to provide a framework that enables an-alysts to find, display and understand data relationships, by connecting the dots of data to create network of information. Also, the simulator can generate alternative storylines, allowing analysts to view all possi-ble outcomes. The simulator can automatically conduct reasoning and detect inconsistent data, which provides more reliable information for analysis. Our simulator can shoulder analysts ’ work, and they can save a lot of time, allowing them to focus on more detailed analysis. In this paper, we will describe the framework, rationale and applicability of our simulator. Also, we will conduct an experiment using data from the [24 hours] TV show, and we will give experiment results to show how our approach can help with intelligence analysis of WMD attacks against critical infrastructure