Do Citizens Vote Sincerely (If They Vote at All)? Theory and Evidence from U.S

Understanding citizens ’ electoral behavior (e.g., selective abstention and split-ticket voting), represents a fundamental step in the analysis of democratic insti-tutions. In this paper, we assess the extent to which sincere voting can explain observed patterns of participation and voting in U.S. national elections. We propose a unified model of turnout and voting in presidential and congressional elections with heterogenous voters. We estimate the model using individual-level data for eight presidential election years (1972-2000). Our main findings can be summarized as follows. First, a non-negligible fraction of the American electorate does not vote sincerely, and only a relatively small fraction of ob-served split-ticket voting can be explained by sincere voting. Second, there is a systematic, positive relationship between information and turnout. Third, the American electorate has become relatively more polarized over time. ∗We would like to thank Nolan McCarty, Tom Palfrey, Torsten Persson and Guido Tabellini for helpfu