Local land-atmosphere Coupling (LoCo): Forecast precipitation skill for different land-atmosphere coupling regimes in the Southeast United States

Extreme hydrologic events in the form of droughts are a significant source of social and economic damage in the Southeast United States. Having sufficient warning of these extreme events allows managers to prepare for and reduce the severity of their impacts. A seasonal hydrologic forecast system can be used to provide early warning; however, the skill of the forecasts greatly depends on the skill of the precipitation forecast. During the convective season the land-atmosphere interaction (coupling) impacts the diurnal precipitation cycle through the surface heat and moisture fluxes. This leads to the questions, what is the role of coupling over the Southeast United States and how does it affect drought and the skill of precipitation forecasts from seasonal forecast models