Study Of Evolution Of The Incidence And Cancer Mortality Using The Markov Chain

ABSTRACT: Markov chains are a method among methods we can use to describe the dynamics of a disease in its different stages. While the theory and practice of modeling of Markov chains Epidemiology is not new, rather the basic application of this powerful tool can be used by non-mathematicians as well. In this work, we present the above theory by announcing the assumptions and conditions of use of Markov chains in the study of diseases and specifically breast cancer, which could facilitate the formulation of hypotheses, and understanding the evolution of the disease in a population. We focus on absorbing Markov chains in discrete time, and we are going step by step to calculate the probability of infection with breast cancer for an individual, the duration of each state and the life expectancy for infected people. These quantities are useful for characterizing the dynamics of a disease and can help researchers to explore key aspects of the evolution of the disease into a population