ARTICLE IN PRESS Scheduled for JTLU 8.1 Toward a simulation of minibuses in South Africa

Abstract: Aer private cars, minibus taxis are the most common transport mode in South Africa. Especially for low-income citizens living in townships, minibus services are oen the only possibility formobility. Despite the great importance of themode, there is very little knowledge of routes, fares, and the number ofminibuses. Hence, it is difficult to simulate and to understand the influence of thismode on othermodes and on transport planning in general. is article presents the development of the first “close-to-reality ” minibus supply model based on demand and street network only. e approach adopts the survival-of-the-fittest principle, using a co-evolutionary algorithm that is integrated into a microscopic multi-agent simulation framework. e successful application of the approach to a large-scale, real-world scenario in the Nelson Mandela Bay Area Municipality in South Africa shows that it is able to identify the main minibus corridors as well as to find robust service coverage in lower-demand areas. e resulting minibus supply model can then be used for planning purposes (e.g., to investigate aspects of strategic, operational, or regulatory changes).