Coal Resources and Supply Conditions in Different Countries

Nowadays (2008, 2010), the rate of coal in the world’s electricity production of 20·1012 kWh/year is a round 40%. It is similarly high in leading coal producer countries: 47 % in both the US and Germany. For the future (2020, 2030, 2050), long-term forecasts/plans predict a similarly high rate: 38 % in the U an, a round 50 % in Germany. With the world average being predicted to be 43 % in 2035 with a production of 35·1012 kWh/year. The present (2010) coal production of 6.3 billion t/year may increase to 11 billion t/year by the end of the 21st century with the century average amounting to 8 billion t/year. On the basis of official reports and expert estimations, the forecast data for both geological and, in greater detail, explored industrial coal resources (that can be economically exploited) are analyzed. The wide range of professional estimations gives approximately identical figures: the world’s industrial coal resources are 700-1,000 (1,200) billion tons while estimated geological resources amount to 5,000 – 8,000 (15,000) billion tons. On the basis of the production (demand) data forecast for the 21st century, the average period of supply in industrial resources is 200-300 years in the large coal producer countries (over 1,000 years in Russia) while the world average is 160 years due to China’s figure of 40 years attributable to exceptionally intensive production there. The average of the 8 leading coal producer countries (China’s 40 year figure included) is approximately identical with this while the average of 7 countries (China excluded) is a round 400 years