Executive Summary

This memorandum provides additional details on our approach and assumptions used to forecast the Cost Curve (i.e. healthcare expenditures as a percent of Gross State Product) and premiums affordability (i.e. employer-sponsored health insurance premiums as a percent of median household income) in California. Our projections were based on historical trends and other forecasts, which we adjusted for the California context and the Affordable Care Act’s 2014 coverage expansion. The principal data sources for modeling the Cost Curve included th