Integrated assessment of changes in flooding probabilities due to climate change. Climatic Change 81

An approach to considering changes in flooding probability in the integrated assessment of climate change is introduced. A reduced-form hydrological model for flood prediction and a downscaling approach suitable for integrated assess-ment modeling are presented. Based on these components, the fraction of world population affected by changes in flooding probability in the course of climate change is determined. This is then used as a climate impact response function in order to derive emission corridors limiting the population affected. This approach illustrates the consideration of probabilistic impacts within the framework of the tolerable windows approach. The results suggest that up to 20 % of the world popu-lation might inevitably be affected by increased flood events in the course of global warming.