Articles Estimating Trend in Occupancy for the Southern Sierra

Carnivores are important elements of biodiversity, not only because of their role in transferring energy and nutrients, but also because they influence the structure of the communities where they occur. The fisher Martes pennanti is a mammalian carnivore that is associated with late-successional mixed forests in the Sierra Nevada in California, and is vulnerable to the effects of forest management. As a candidate for endangered species status, it is important to monitor its population to determine whether actions to conserve it are successful. We implemented a monitoring program to estimate change in occupancy of fishers across a 12,240-km2 area in the southern Sierra Nevada. Sample units were about 4 km apart, consisting of six enclosed, baited track-plate stations, and aligned with the national Forest Inventory and Analysis grid. We report here the results of 8 y (2002–2009) of sampling of a core set of 223 sample units. We model the combined effects of probability of detection and occupancy to estimate occupancy, persistence rates, and trend in occupancy. In combined models, we evaluated four forms of detection probability (1-group and 2-group both constant and varying by year) and nine forms of probability of occupancy (differing primarily by how occupancy and persistence vary among years). The best-fitting model assumed constant probability of occupancy, constant persistence, and two detection groups (AIC weight = 0.707). This fit the data best for the entire study area as well as two of the three distinct geographic zones therein. The one zone with a trend parameter found no significant difference from zero for that parameter. This suggests that, over the 8-