1 The Theory of Planned Behavior and the Realization of Fertility Intentions

Since the 1960s there has been a dramatic drop in birth rates across Europe, and fertility below replacement levels has captured the attention of researchers, policymakers, and society at large. In research this is reflected by analysis on possible reasons for the fertility decline, including studies of fertility intentions and subsequent outcomes. Fertility intentions are an essential factor to understand changing fertility rates at macro level as well as individual family transitions. Studies suggest that not all fertility intentions are realized (Schoen et al. 1999; Voas 2003) and expected number of children is generally higher than completed number of children (Noack & Østby 2000). One of the most prominent social psychological models used to explain or predict behaviors is the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). According to this theory the intention is not only a direct pre-condition to the behavior, but actually mediates between a set of explanatory factors and the possible outcome (Ajzen 2005). To understand the gap between expressed intentions and actual births the timing of fertility intentions seems relevant. The TPB states that the longer the time interval between forming an intention and performing the actual behavior, the more likely it is that intentions change in response to other events (Fishbein & Ajzen 2010). Consequently, people might be less determined to realize their fertilit