ON THE PROBLEMS OF MODELLING AND RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS DURATION

Construction projects are subject to risk. There are a number of methods that allow the planner to consider the effect of random occurrences on the project performance and to assess the chances of meeting the deadlines defined by the contract. PERT belongs to the most popular methods as it assumes a simple approach to estimating the distribution parameters of random variables (task durations) based on the experience of the planner. The paper summarises PERT’s assumptions on the type and parameters of task duration distributions, task duration independence, and the approach to the analysis of the network model in the function of time. The effects of these assumptions on the project makespan estimate are then examined and illustrated by an example