Cutler, N. High-Risk Scenarios for Wind Power Forecasting in Australia. EWEC07. High-Risk Scenarios for Wind Power Forecasting in

This paper presents preliminary results from a wind power forecasting study of potentially high-risk scenarios for power systems in the context of the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). This paper focuses on the two Australian States of highest wind penetration to date, South Australia and Tasmania. Firstly, a study is made of the wind climate of these two States affecting the wind power output at various wind farms. Techniques to identify specific instances of high-risk scenarios are explored combining aggregated wind power and meteorological observations with known inherent power system constraints. An assessment is made of the performance of two technically different, commercially available forecasting systems. Further work is planned to expand on these findings and develop ramp forecasting techniques as a complement to traditional approaches