Drought Assessment and Forecasting Using a Nonlinear Aggregated Drought Index By

Drought is a natural phenomenon, and has widespread and significant impacts on the world’s economy, environment, industries and the community. Early detection of droughts helps to implement drought mitigation strategies and measures, before they occur. Therefore, drought forecasting plays an important role in the planning and management of water resources systems, especially during dry climatic periods. However, drought assessment and forecasting are not always easy. This study developed an objective drought assessment tool through a Drought Index (DI), and then developed a drought forecasting tool using the developed DI to forecast future drought conditions. These tools can be used to assist water managers to assess droughts effectively and forecast future drought conditions, which will allow them to plan ahead the water management activities during droughts. The Yarra River catchment in Australia was considered as the case study catchment, since the management of water resources in this catchment has great importance to majority of Victorians. To achieve the objectives of this study, an evaluation of existing DIs was firs