The sensitivity of numerically simulated cyclic mesocyclogenesis to variations in model physical and computational parameters

A three-dimensional nonhydrostatic numerical model, the Advanced Regional Prediction System, is used to study the process of cyclic mesocyclogenesis in a classic supercell thunderstorm. During the 4-h simulation, the storm’s mesocyclone undergoes two distinct occlusions, with the beginning of a third indicated at the end of the simulation. The occlusion process exhibits a period of approximately 60 min and is qualitatively similar in each case. Initial midlevel (3–7 km) mesocyclogenesis proceeds according to the ‘‘classic’ ’ picture, that is, via tilting of streamwise environmental vorticity. The development of an evaporatively driven rear-flank downdraft (RFD) signals the beginning of the occlusion process. The developing RFD wraps cyclonically around the mesocyclone, causing the gust front to surge outward. Simultaneously, the occluding mesocyclone rapidly intensifies near the surface. Trajectory analyses demonstrate that this intensification follows from the tilting and stretching of near-ground (,500 m) streamwise vorticity produced by baroclinic generation, crosswise exchange, and streamwise stretching along descending parcel trajectories in the RFD. The surging gust front also initiates updraft devel-opment on the downshear flank at midlevels, resulting in a two-celled updraft structure. As the near-ground mesocyclone becomes detached from the gust front due to the developing occlusion downdraft, the upshear updraft flank weakens as its conditionally unstable inflow is cut off at low levels; at the same time, the downshea