Transparent Reporting of amultivariable predictionmodel for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD): The TRIPOD Statement

Prediction models are developed to aid health care providers in estimating the probability or risk that a specific disease or con-dition is present (diagnostic models) or that a specific event will occur in the future (prognostic models), to inform their decision making. However, the overwhelming evidence shows that the quality of reporting of prediction model studies is poor. Only with full and clear reporting of information on all aspects of a prediction model can risk of bias and potential usefulness of pre-diction models be adequately assessed. The Transparent Re-porting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prog-nosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) Initiative developed a set of recommendations for the reporting of studies developing, vali-dating, or updating a prediction model, whether for diagnostic or prognostic purposes. This article describes how the TRIPOD Statement was developed. An extensive list of items based on a review of the literature was created, which was reduced after a Web-based survey and revised during a 3-day meeting in June 2011 with methodologists, health care professionals, and journal editors. The list was refined during several meetings of the steer-ing group and in e-mail discussions with the wider group of TRIPOD contributors. The resulting TRIPOD Statement is a checklist of 22 items, deemed essential for transparent reporting of a prediction model study. The TRIPOD Statement aims to im-prove the transparency of the reporting of a prediction model study regardless of the study methods used. The TRIPOD State-ment is best used in conjunction with the TRIPOD explanation and elaboration document. To aid the editorial process and readers of prediction model studies, it is recommended that au-thors include a completed checklist in their submission (also available at www.tripod-statement.org). Ann Intern Med. 2015;162:55-63. doi:10.7326/M14-0697 www.annals.org For author affiliations, see end of text. For contributors to the TRIPOD Statement, see the Appendix (available at www.annals.org). Editors ' Note: In order to encourage dissemination of the TRIPOD Statement, this article is freely accessible o