GROWTH PROSPECTS AND FISCAL REQUIREMENTS OVER THE LONG TERM 4. GROWTH PROSPECTS AND FISCAL REQUIREMENTS OVER THE LONGTERM OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, VOLUME 2014/1 © OECD 2014 – PRELIMINARY VERSION214 Summary

● The composition of global output will continue to shift towards emerging economies as well as towards Asia; the combined GDP of China and India was 33 % of that of the OECD in 2010 (on a PPP basis), but is expected to rise to 73 % by 2060. ● Providing growth of the technology frontier continues at historical rates, average growth in OECD GDP per capita over the period to 2060 is projected to be similar to the 1 per cent per annum experienced in the immediate pre-crisis period. ● With only a few major exceptions, the adverse effect of population ageing on labour utilisation in OECD countries will be largely offset by rising labour force participation. Up until 2030, this is achieved in most countries through already legislated increases in pensionable age, the positive effect of increased education and trend increases in female participation. Beyond 2030 it will require additional reforms to ensure that retirement ages are effectively indexed to life expectancy. ● The crisis is estimated to have reduced OECD-wide potential output per capita by about 3 per cent. For some European, mainly euro area, countries, the effect has been much larger, with the reduction i