Assessing the Potential Role of Large-Scale PV Generation and Electric Vehicles in Future Low- Carbon Electricity Industries

Abstract—This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the economic i mplications of larg e scale Photovoltaic (P V) investment a nd Electric V ehicles (EV) uptake for th e Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). A probabilistic generation portfolio modelling tool is used to ass ess th e potential im pact o f different combinations of PV and EV penetrations on the overall electricity industry costs, associated cost u ncertainties, a nd g reenhouse g as emissions o f differen t future g eneration p ortfolios. Th e o ther generation options include conventional coal, combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) and open cycle gas turbine (OCGT) plants. The impacts of EV uptake o n hourly e lectricity de mand w as accounted for through the simulation of EV ch arging behaviour using actual Australian v ehicle trav el pattern s urvey d ata. T wo EV charging in frastructure cases (residential only a nd u niversal charging) were included to a ccount for the impact of possible infrastructure ch oices o n the tem poral ch aracteristic o f charging. Re sults highlight so me pote ntial s ynergies be tween PV generation and EV ch arging in red ucing costs for fu ture electricity industries, particularly in the context of significant carbon p rices. However, r esults al so emphasize th e n eed for appropriate EV charging s trategies to maximize the potential value o f high PV an d EV p enetration l evels within futur e electricity industries. Keywords-component; ph otovoltaics (PV), el ectric veh icles, Australian National E lectricity M arket (N EM), generation portfolio analysis I